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Obama behind in polls


Guest 2smart4u
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Guest 2smart4u

One factor that doesn't show up in polls is "white guilt". It's estimated that 1 out of 4 people who say they're voting for Obama will actually vote for McCain. When polled, these people don't want to be perceived as racist, so they say they're voting for Obama. When they get behind the curtain however, they will vote for McCain. This is something you won't hear or read in the liberal media but the election will swing on this large voting block.

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Guest Guest
One factor that doesn't show up in polls is "white guilt". It's estimated that 1 out of 4 people who say they're voting for Obama will actually vote for McCain.

lol, estimated by who, numbnuts? Just more made-up shit from a fool in denial.

When polled, these people don't want to be perceived as racist, so they say they're voting for Obama. When they get behind the curtain however, they will vote for McCain. This is something you won't hear or read in the liberal media but the election will swing on this large voting block.

None of the pollsters poll cell phone users. The fact is that it's more likely Obama's numbers are actually UNDERrepresented as a result.

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Guest Guest
One factor that doesn't show up in polls is "white guilt". It's estimated that 1 out of 4 people who say they're voting for Obama will actually vote for McCain. When polled, these people don't want to be perceived as racist, so they say they're voting for Obama. When they get behind the curtain however, they will vote for McCain. This is something you won't hear or read in the liberal media but the election will swing on this large voting block.

Estimated?

It's a KNOWN FACT that 1 out of 1 people who post as '2smart4u' are panicing as the deposing of of their NeoConfused idols nears.

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Guest keith
One factor that doesn't show up in polls is "white guilt". It's estimated that 1 out of 4 people who say they're voting for Obama will actually vote for McCain. When polled, these people don't want to be perceived as racist, so they say they're voting for Obama. When they get behind the curtain however, they will vote for McCain. This is something you won't hear or read in the liberal media but the election will swing on this large voting block.

I'm gonna vote for Obama just to piss you off.

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Guest Charlie Brown
One factor that doesn't show up in polls is "white guilt". It's estimated that 1 out of 4 people who say they're voting for Obama will actually vote for McCain. When polled, these people don't want to be perceived as racist, so they say they're voting for Obama. When they get behind the curtain however, they will vote for McCain. This is something you won't hear or read in the liberal media but the election will swing on this large voting block.

Dear 2smart4u (boy, I can't stand that name), I can't wait for the day when I don't have to hear or read YOU. Good Grief you are annoying!

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Guest *Bern*
lol, estimated by who, numbnuts? Just more made-up shit from a fool in denial.

None of the pollsters poll cell phone users. The fact is that it's more likely Obama's numbers are actually UNDERrepresented as a result.

You would think so. But I would not count on that.

I live in Southern NJ and I know many of the "well to do" near Rumson, Red Bank and the Navesink River. All most all of them support McCain (you'll find the communities there vote heavily Republican) and they exclusively use their cell phones.

Like me (I'm not saying I'm voting for McCain), they don't even bother to answer the landline phone since their friends know to call their cell numbers. The landlines are used for emergencies or for trades people (leave a message).

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Guest 2smart4u
Dear 2smart4u (boy, I can't stand that name), I can't wait for the day when I don't have to hear or read YOU. Good Grief you are annoying!

Now you've gone and hurt my feelings, I hope you're happy.

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http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/elec...es_N.htm?csp=34

Growing diversity in swing counties favors Obama

WASHINGTON (AP) — Minority Americans have been flocking to the nation's "swing counties," hotly contested areas that could play a crucial role in this year's election.

That's got to be good news for Barack Obama, bidding to become the first black president.

Blacks and Hispanics are moving to counties that already were racially diverse, such as Osceola in central Florida and Mecklenberg in North Carolina, home to Charlotte. They also are moving to key counties that remain predominantly white, such as Lake in Northeast Ohio, Lehigh in eastern Pennsylvania and Oakland outside Detroit.

If this year's election is as close as the past two, demographic shifts in these counties could make a big difference.

The racial changes reflect national trends: 93% of all counties are less white than they were at the start of the decade, according to new Census estimates. But the changes are even more profound in swing counties of potential battleground states, counties that were decided by razor thin margins in 2000 and 2004 and could decide statewide winners this year.

"The key this time is there are a fair number of battleground states that are becoming more diverse, and maybe diverse enough to make a difference," said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.

"The diversity used to be mainly in pretty safe states, like Texas, California and New York," he said.

The Census Bureau last week released 2007 data on race, age and Hispanic origin for all 3,141 counties in the nation. The Associated Press used the data to analyze 129 key counties in 14 states expected to be the most competitive in this year's presidential election. Each county was decided by no more than 5 percentage points in the past two elections, and each sits in a state that could go either way this year.

The analysis showed that from 2000 to 2007, minorities made up a growing share of the population in all but 12 of the swing counties. The changes happened among every age group, even seniors, though they were much more pronounced among the young, including those too young to vote.

Obama, who had a white mother and black father, overwhelmingly won the black vote in the Democratic primaries, and he is polling more strongly than Republican John McCain among Hispanics.

Both candidates are targeting voters under 30. But while young voters have increased their turnout in recent elections, they are still less likely to vote than any other age group.

Obama "may be generating excitement," said Vincent Hutchings, associate professor of political science at the University of Michigan. "But is he generating enough enthusiasm to excite people who lack a formal education and are disproportionately young, and not likely to vote?"

Hutchings said the demographic changes could affect this year's election, but he expects the impact to be greater in future elections as young minorities, particularly the booming Hispanic population, become older and more politically active.

The Census numbers are based on estimates, and in some counties changes in racial composition are small enough to be statistically insignificant. But the trend is clear: The nation is becoming increasingly diverse, even more so in areas that have been decisive the past two presidential elections.

The AP analysis looked at counties in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Nevada also was analyzed because it is a competitive state this year. None of the state's counties met the criteria for swing counties in the previous two elections, but each has become more diverse since the decade began.

Some states are more competitive than others, and many of the counties remained overwhelmingly white. But given the closeness of the past two presidential elections, even small changes could make a difference in competitive states.

For example, Lake County, just northeast of Cleveland, is still 92% white. But since the start of the decade, the number of Hispanics has grown by 73% and the black population has increased by 47%. The number of whites has dropped slightly in a county that President Bush narrowly won in 2000 and 2004.

Hillsborough County, N.H., home to Manchester, is still 89% white. But the number of Hispanics has grown by 57% and the number of blacks has increased by 56%. The white population has increased by just 2% in a county that Bush barely won twice.

The nation's minority population has grown through higher birthrates and immigration. As a result, the share of minorities increased between 2000 and 2007 in every state but Hawaii and the District of Columbia.

Nationally, the white population grew by just 2% in that time, while the number of blacks increased by 10% and the number of Hispanics grew by 29%.

In the swing counties examined by the AP, the black population grew by an average of 18% and the number of Hispanics increased by 45%. The white population on average grew by less than a percent in the 129 counties.

"In many ways demographic differences are the raw material for party politics," said John Green, director of the University of Akron's Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics.

"If the election is close, it could come down to small demographic changes in some areas."

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http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/elec...es_N.htm?csp=34

Growing diversity in swing counties favors Obama

WASHINGTON (AP) — Minority Americans have been flocking to the nation's "swing counties," hotly contested areas that could play a crucial role in this year's election.

That's got to be good news for Barack Obama, bidding to become the first black president.

Blacks and Hispanics are moving to counties that already were racially diverse, such as Osceola in central Florida and Mecklenberg in North Carolina, home to Charlotte. They also are moving to key counties that remain predominantly white, such as Lake in Northeast Ohio, Lehigh in eastern Pennsylvania and Oakland outside Detroit.

Minorities moving into swing counties isn't going to do anything for Obama. What difference does it make if they are in cities or are in counties? Its the state totals that counts, not the distribution within the state.

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One factor that doesn't show up in polls is "white guilt". It's estimated that 1 out of 4 people who say they're voting for Obama will actually vote for McCain. When polled, these people don't want to be perceived as racist, so they say they're voting for Obama. When they get behind the curtain however, they will vote for McCain. This is something you won't hear or read in the liberal media but the election will swing on this large voting block.

Just like a right winger. If they can't win the election any other way, maybe racism will save their sorry behinds.

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Guest Radagast
Minorities moving into swing counties isn't going to do anything for Obama. What difference does it make if they are in cities or are in counties? Its the state totals that counts, not the distribution within the state.

Unless they mean that they're moving lets say from NYC to eastern Pennsylvania but that wasn't clear.

Also, to your point before about cell phone polling, hard wire phones will get almost no twenty somethings to answer. That's why, all things considered, I think Obama would get a greater proportion of the 'cell phone vote'.

Polls taken now are far from a reflection of what people will think in November when they get serious. I think they are designed to keep us political junkies well fed. Most of the national polls show Obama ahead and the state polls in particular don't look good for McCain. He's only ahead by 4 or 5% in places like North Carolina. He may even lose Virgina and Florida. It is very close, however, so I'm not making any predictions yet.

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Guest Radagast
One factor that doesn't show up in polls is "white guilt". It's estimated that 1 out of 4 people who say they're voting for Obama will actually vote for McCain. When polled, these people don't want to be perceived as racist, so they say they're voting for Obama. When they get behind the curtain however, they will vote for McCain. This is something you won't hear or read in the liberal media but the election will swing on this large voting block.

'White Guilt' ... now there's something I'll bet you're an expert on.

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Guest 2smart4u
Minorities moving into swing counties isn't going to do anything for Obama. What difference does it make if they are in cities or are in counties? Its the state totals that counts, not the distribution within the state.

That's a little to complicated for Manscum to understand

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HAHAHAHA!!! Moron-the verb 'is' is referring to 'the use'-so the singular is correct. LOL.

I believe you're wrong Autonomous. "To/too and periods are too complicated" is the correct form.

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I believe you're wrong Autonomous. "To/too and periods are too complicated" is the correct form.

Guess agaoin! You had a 50/50 shot and blew it!

"the use of " is singular and takes the singular verb.

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Guest Writer of the Sentence
I believe you're wrong Autonomous. "To/too and periods are too complicated" is the correct form.

No. Here's the sentence:

"Even the use of to/too and periods is too complicated for you to understand."

"of to/too and periods" is a prepositional phrase. "Use" is the subject (it is the use that is too complicated), and is singular. "Is" is also singular, as it should be.

People shouldn't be grammar Nazis if they don't know their grammar. :excl:

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Guest *Autonomous*
I believe you're wrong Autonomous. "To/too and periods are too complicated" is the correct form.

Again-the subject is 'use.' 'The use of to/too and periods is too complicated'-'of to/too and periods' is another clause.

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